San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza · Referee Kevin Bonacina, Italy · Analysis updated 19:43 UTC
Inter vs Parma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Inter and 0.75 for Parma, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Inter the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inter win
82.1% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 12% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Inter and 0.75 for Parma, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.6%
- 3–010.6%
- 4–07.9%
- 2–17.9%
- 3–17.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 2.00 (model 49.9% vs market 46.7%, edge +3.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 49.9% | 2.00 | +3.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.03 | 93.0% | 93.6% | 1.07 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 5.50 | 17.4% | 17.8% | 5.62 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 15.00 | 6.2% | 6.3% | 15.87 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.14 | 82.1% | 82.1% | 1.22 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 8.00 | 11.7% | 11.5% | 8.70 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.07 | 89.6% | 88.4% | 1.13 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.75 | 53.3% | 50.1% | 2.00 | -3.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Inter
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Udinese · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 1-2 (L)
Parma
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T18:45:00.000Z · Inter 2-0 Parma (Serie A)
- 2026-01-07T19:45:00.000Z · Inter 2-0 Parma (Serie A)
- 2025-04-05T16:00:00.000Z · Inter 2-2 Parma (Serie A)
- 2024-12-06T17:30:00.000Z · Inter 3-1 Parma (Serie A)
- 2023-01-10T20:00:00.000Z · Inter 2-1 Parma (Coppa Italia)
- 2021-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · Inter 2-0 Parma (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-03-04T19:45:00.000Z · Inter 2-1 Parma (Serie A)
- 2020-10-31T17:00:00.000Z · Inter 2-2 Parma (Serie A)
- 2020-06-28T19:45:00.000Z · Inter 2-1 Parma (Serie A)
- 2019-10-26T16:00:00.000Z · Inter 2-2 Parma (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter win, at 82.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.