Estádio Beira Rio · Referee Felipe Fernandes de Lima, Brazil · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Internacional vs Corinthians Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Internacional and 0.79 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Internacional the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.4% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Internacional home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Corinthians away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.4%
- 1–016.7%
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 2–08.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 66.3% vs market 55.7%, edge +10.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 66.3% | 1.51 | +10.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 70.9% | 71.4% | 1.40 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.53 | 61.7% | 62.0% | 1.61 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 28.6% | 28.7% | 3.48 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.40 | 38.1% | 38.1% | 2.62 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.75 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 3.00 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.50 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 33.7% | 2.97 | -10.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Internacional
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-3 (L)
Corinthians
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Internacional · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · Internacional 2-1 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2026-08-06T23:00:00.000Z · Internacional 1-2 Corinthians (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-08-02T22:30:00.000Z · Internacional 2-0 Corinthians (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-04-05T22:30:00.000Z · Internacional 1-0 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2025-10-01T22:30:00.000Z · Internacional 1-1 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2025-05-03T21:30:00.000Z · Internacional 2-4 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2024-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · Internacional 2-2 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2024-06-20T00:30:00.000Z · Internacional 1-0 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2023-12-02T21:00:00.000Z · Internacional 2-1 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2023-08-05T21:30:00.000Z · Internacional 2-2 Corinthians (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.