Stade du Moustoir · Analysis updated 19:43 UTC
Lorient vs Monaco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Lorient and 1.30 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Monaco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.8% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lorient home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Monaco away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–28.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 55.4% vs market 43.2%, edge +12.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 43.2% | 55.4% | 1.81 | +12.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 54.0% | 55.4% | 1.81 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.9% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 3.40 | 27.1% | 27.2% | 3.68 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.05 | 45.0% | 44.6% | 2.24 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 72.8% | 1.37 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 71.8% | 1.39 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 56.8% | 44.6% | 2.24 | -12.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lorient
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 1-2 (L)
Monaco
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-16T18:00:00.000Z · Lorient 3-1 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2025-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · Lorient 3-1 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2024-03-17T14:00:00.000Z · Lorient 2-2 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2023-09-17T11:00:00.000Z · Lorient 2-2 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2023-04-16T15:05:00.000Z · Lorient 1-3 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2023-01-11T20:00:00.000Z · Lorient 2-2 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2022-02-13T12:00:00.000Z · Lorient 0-0 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2021-08-13T19:00:00.000Z · Lorient 1-0 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2021-02-14T12:00:00.000Z · Lorient 2-2 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 2021-01-06T18:00:00.000Z · Lorient 2-5 Monaco (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.