Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas · Referee Miguel Nogueira, Portugal · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.18 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives GIL Vicente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.4% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Moreirense home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GIL Vicente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 29% / 30% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Moreirense and 1.18 for GIL Vicente, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–28.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 58.3% vs market 50.0%, edge +8.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +8.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.6% | 70.3% | 1.42 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 41.7% | 41.8% | 2.39 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 58.0% | 58.1% | 1.72 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.6% | 29.6% | 3.38 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.20 | 28.7% | 28.5% | 3.51 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 72.3% | 71.4% | 1.40 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -8.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Moreirense
- 2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-2 (L)
GIL Vicente
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-24T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · Moreirense 2-2 GIL Vicente (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-02-07T15:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-2 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-29T19:15:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-2 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-04-06T14:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-01-12T19:45:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-1 GIL Vicente (Taça de Portugal)
- 2024-11-08T20:15:00.000Z · Moreirense 3-2 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-04-20T14:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-12-11T20:15:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-04-08T19:15:00.000Z · Moreirense 2-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-11-26T20:15:00.000Z · Moreirense 2-2 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.