Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium · Referee Harm Osmers, Germany · Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.57 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Olympiakos Piraeus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olympiakos Piraeus win
71.8% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 0.57
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olympiakos Piraeus home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jagiellonia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 19% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.57 for Jagiellonia, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.3%
- 1–015.1%
- 3–010.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 62.3% vs market 53.9%, edge +8.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 53.9% | 62.3% | 1.61 | +8.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 18.7% | 18.9% | 5.29 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.40 | 28.0% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.05 | 90.7% | 90.7% | 1.10 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.30 | 71.9% | 71.8% | 1.39 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 10.00 | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.75 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 81.4% | 81.1% | 1.23 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 46.1% | 37.7% | 2.65 | -8.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Olympiakos Piraeus
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Panathinaikos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Levadiakos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs OFI · 0-1 (L)
Jagiellonia
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Omonia Nicosia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Ferencvarosi TC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | Sparta Praha | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Rennes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | AC Milan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | OFI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Torreense | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | Lillestrom | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | Levski Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 27 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 28 | Celta Vigo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Anderlecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Plzen | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 33 | Celtic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Ararat-Armenia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celje | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Lech Poznan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olympiakos Piraeus win, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.