Stadio Renzo Barbera · Referee Marco Di Bello, Italy · Analysis updated 21:31 UTC
Palermo vs Padova Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Palermo and 0.87 for Padova, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Palermo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Palermo win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Palermo home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Padova away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 2–011.2%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 51.7% vs market 46.7%, edge +5.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 51.7% | 1.93 | +5.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.55 | 58.6% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.30 | 40.8% | 41.1% | 2.43 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.9% | 77.0% | 1.30 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.2% | 18.1% | 5.52 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.3% | 23.0% | 4.35 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 82.3% | 81.9% | 1.22 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 48.3% | 2.07 | -5.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Palermo
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Padova · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Avellino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sampdoria · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mantova · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arezzo · 3-2 (W)
Padova
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Palermo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ascoli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Cremonese · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pisa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · Palermo 2-1 Padova (Serie B)
- 2026-03-21T14:00:00.000Z · Palermo 1-0 Padova (Serie B)
- 2025-12-27T16:15:00.000Z · Palermo 1-0 Padova (Serie B)
- 2022-06-12T19:15:00.000Z · Palermo 1-0 Padova (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2022-06-05T19:00:00.000Z · Palermo 1-0 Padova (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2019-04-22T19:00:00.000Z · Palermo 1-1 Padova (Serie B)
- 2018-12-08T11:30:00.000Z · Palermo 3-1 Padova (Serie B)
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Sudtirol | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Mantova | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Ascoli | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Avellino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Modena | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Padova | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Benevento | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Hellas Verona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Cesena | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Pisa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Arezzo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 13 | Empoli | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Sampdoria | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Catanzaro | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 19 | Juve Stabia | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 20 | Carrarese | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palermo win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.