Parc des Princes · Referee Mathieu Vernice, France · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.82 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.78 for Le Mans, a combined total of 4.60. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paris Saint Germain win
89.1% probability
Expected goals
3.82 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paris Saint Germain home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Le Mans away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris Saint Germain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 89% / 7% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.82 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.78 for Le Mans, a combined 4.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
11%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.3%
- 4–08.9%
- 2–07.3%
- 3–17.3%
- 4–17.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 5.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 2.05 (model 52.1% vs market 46.1%, edge +6.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 2.05 | 46.1% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +6.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.02 | 95.5% | 96.3% | 1.04 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.07 | 89.0% | 89.1% | 1.12 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 9.00 | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.17 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 26.00 | 3.7% | 3.7% | 27.03 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 13.00 | 7.3% | 7.2% | 13.89 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.04 | 93.7% | 92.8% | 1.08 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.75 | 53.9% | 47.9% | 2.09 | -6.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Paris Saint Germain
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
Le Mans
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lorient · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-02-04T20:10:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Le Mans (Coupe de France)
- 2021-07-14T09:00:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 4-0 Le Mans (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2019-12-18T20:05:00.000Z · Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Le Mans (Coupe de la Ligue)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paris Saint Germain win, at 89.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.