MAC³PARK Stadion · Referee Sander van der Eijk · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.09 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives PEC Zwolle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
PEC Zwolle win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PEC Zwolle home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cambuur away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–16.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 45.6% vs market 36.5%, edge +9.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 36.5% | 45.6% | 2.19 | +9.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.7% | 76.1% | 1.31 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.7% | 75.8% | 1.32 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 51.9% | 51.9% | 1.93 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 23.9% | 23.9% | 4.18 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.75 | 24.2% | 24.2% | 4.13 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 48.5% | 48.1% | 2.08 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.5% | 54.4% | 1.84 | -9.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
PEC Zwolle
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-3 (L)
Cambuur
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2022-07-22T17:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 3-1 Cambuur (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-02-12T17:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 4-3 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2021-11-06T20:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-2 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2021-07-24T12:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 2-1 Cambuur (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2020-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-2 Cambuur (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2016-02-27T18:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-1 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2015-08-12T17:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 2-2 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2015-03-07T19:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 6-1 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2014-12-20T17:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-2 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2014-02-16T11:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-3 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PEC Zwolle win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.