Estadio El Sardinero · Referee L. Bestard Servera · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Racing Santander vs Valencia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Racing Santander and 1.00 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Racing Santander the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Racing Santander win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Racing Santander home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Racing Santander to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Racing Santander and 1.00 for Valencia, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 51.6% vs market 43.7%, edge +7.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.7% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +7.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.5% | 52.5% | 1.90 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.60 | 25.8% | 26.0% | 3.85 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.5% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 47.6% | 47.5% | 2.11 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 56.3% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -7.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Racing Santander
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 2-3 (L)
Valencia
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2012-01-29T17:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 2-2 Valencia (La Liga)
- 2011-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 3-4 Valencia (La Liga)
- 2011-01-31T20:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 1-1 Valencia (La Liga)
- 2010-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 0-1 Valencia (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Racing Santander win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.