Campo de Futbol de Vallecas · Referee J. Sanchez · Analysis updated 13:16 UTC
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.24 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Athletic Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rayo Vallecano home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Athletic Club to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 31% / 28% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.24 for Athletic Club, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–28.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 53.6% vs market 43.7%, edge +9.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.7% | 53.6% | 1.87 | +9.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 58.2% | 59.6% | 1.68 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 28.0% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.30 | 40.2% | 40.3% | 2.48 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.90 | 31.9% | 31.4% | 3.18 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.5% | 71.7% | 1.39 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 69.3% | 68.5% | 1.46 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 56.3% | 46.4% | 2.16 | -9.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rayo Vallecano
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 2-5 (L)
Athletic Club
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.