Roazhon Park · Referee Willy Delajod · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Rennes vs Auxerre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Rennes and 0.90 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Rennes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rennes win
65.0% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rennes home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Auxerre away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–07.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 47.9% vs market 42.9%, edge +5.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.9% | 47.9% | 2.09 | +5.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 84.6% | 84.9% | 1.18 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.60 | 19.8% | 19.9% | 5.03 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 65.0% | 65.0% | 1.54 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 15.2% | 15.1% | 6.62 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.70 | 35.1% | 35.0% | 2.86 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.3% | 80.1% | 1.25 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 57.1% | 52.1% | 1.92 | -5.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rennes
- 2026-10-11T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Laval · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lyon · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 1-0 (W)
Auxerre
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clermont Foot · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-22T14:00:00.000Z · Rennes 3-0 Auxerre (Ligue 1)
- 2025-10-19T15:15:00.000Z · Rennes 2-2 Auxerre (Ligue 1)
- 2025-04-06T15:15:00.000Z · Rennes 0-1 Auxerre (Ligue 1)
- 2024-11-03T16:00:00.000Z · Rennes 0-4 Auxerre (Ligue 1)
- 2023-03-11T16:00:00.000Z · Rennes 0-0 Auxerre (Ligue 1)
- 2022-09-11T15:05:00.000Z · Rennes 5-0 Auxerre (Ligue 1)
- 2014-02-12T17:45:00.000Z · Rennes 1-0 Auxerre (Coupe de France)
- 2012-03-11T16:00:00.000Z · Rennes 1-1 Auxerre (Ligue 1)
- 2011-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · Rennes 1-0 Auxerre (Ligue 1)
- 2011-04-02T17:00:00.000Z · Rennes 0-0 Auxerre (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rennes win, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.