Estádio dos Arcos · Referee Carlos Macedo · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Rio Ave vs Nacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Rio Ave and 0.99 for Nacional, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Rio Ave the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rio Ave home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–08.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 55.9% vs market 47.3%, edge +8.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 55.9% | 1.79 | +8.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 57.5% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 29.9% | 30.0% | 3.33 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.9% | 28.9% | 3.46 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 41.2% | 41.1% | 2.43 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 71.3% | 71.1% | 1.41 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 71.3% | 70.0% | 1.43 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 44.1% | 2.27 | -8.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rio Ave
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 0-4 (L)
Nacional
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-25T15:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 0-4 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-17T14:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-1 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-05-10T14:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 3-3 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-12-29T15:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 2-1 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-07-31T09:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-1 Nacional (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-04-10T13:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 0-2 Nacional (Segunda Liga)
- 2021-11-28T14:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-0 Nacional (Segunda Liga)
- 2021-05-19T19:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 2-1 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-02-05T17:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 0-0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2019-03-17T15:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.