Estadio de São Miguel · Referee Anzhony Rodrigues, Portugal · Analysis updated 16:17 UTC
Santa Clara vs Rio Ave Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Santa Clara and 0.68 for Rio Ave, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Santa Clara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santa Clara win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santa Clara home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rio Ave away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Clara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 31% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Santa Clara and 0.68 for Rio Ave, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.4%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–110.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.70 (model 66.0% vs market 54.7%, edge +11.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.70 | 54.7% | 66.0% | 1.52 | +11.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.7% | 78.6% | 1.27 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 47.3% | 47.6% | 2.10 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 30.7% | 31.0% | 3.23 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 52.6% | 52.4% | 1.91 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 22.0% | 21.4% | 4.67 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.7% | 69.0% | 1.45 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 45.3% | 34.0% | 2.94 | -11.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Santa Clara
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 1-1 (D)
Rio Ave
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santa Clara win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.