Estádio José Alvalade · Referee Miguel Bertolo Nogueira · Analysis updated 11:29 UTC
Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Sporting CP and 0.77 for Academico Viseu, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Sporting CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sporting CP win
74.0% probability
Expected goals
2.43 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting CP home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Academico Viseu away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting CP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for Sporting CP and 0.77 for Academico Viseu, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.0%
- 1–09.9%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–17.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.75 | 25.4% | 26.0% | 3.85 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.06 | 89.7% | 90.1% | 1.11 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.80 | 16.0% | 16.1% | 6.21 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 9.50 | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.10 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.9% | 48.9% | 2.04 | -0.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.83 | 51.1% | 51.1% | 1.96 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.25 | 74.2% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 84.9% | 83.9% | 1.19 | -1.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sporting CP
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-13T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
Academico Viseu
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fátima · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting CP win, at 74.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.