· Analysis updated 20:45 UTC
Stade Brestois 29 vs Monza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.33 for Monza, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Stade Brestois 29 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Brestois 29 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monza away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Brestois 29 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 24% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.33 for Monza, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–17.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.50 (model 65.8% vs market 62.5%, edge +3.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.50 | 62.5% | 65.8% | 1.52 | +3.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 74.3% | 75.8% | 1.32 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 43.6% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 30.8% | 31.5% | 3.17 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.20 | 42.9% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.9% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.25 | 41.1% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 56.0% | 55.8% | 1.79 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.65 | 57.1% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 69.7% | 68.6% | 1.46 | -1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.5% | 24.3% | 4.12 | -1.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.50 | 37.5% | 34.2% | 2.92 | -3.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Stade Brestois 29
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
Monza
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sassuolo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lecce · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.