Merkur-Arena · Analysis updated 20:37 UTC
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.89 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Sturm Graz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sturm Graz win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sturm Graz home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grazer AK away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 52.3% vs market 44.3%, edge +8.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 52.3% | 1.91 | +8.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 44.0% | 44.5% | 2.25 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 55.2% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.3% | 24.4% | 4.10 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.7% | 75.6% | 1.32 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 80.2% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 20.5% | 20.1% | 4.98 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 47.7% | 2.10 | -8.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sturm Graz
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Vienna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Floridsdorfer AC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 2-1 (W)
Grazer AK
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SCR Altach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitzbühel · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolfsberger AC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-07T16:00:00.000Z · Sturm Graz 2-1 Grazer AK (Bundesliga)
- 2025-08-30T17:30:00.000Z · Sturm Graz 3-0 Grazer AK (Bundesliga)
- 2025-03-09T16:00:00.000Z · Sturm Graz 2-1 Grazer AK (Bundesliga)
- 2024-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · Sturm Graz 5-2 Grazer AK (Bundesliga)
- 2023-11-02T19:30:00.000Z · Sturm Graz 3-2 Grazer AK (Cup)
- 2022-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · Sturm Graz 1-0 Grazer AK (Cup)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 7 | TSV Hartberg | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 12 | SCR Altach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sturm Graz win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.