London Stadium · Referee Ruebyn Ricardo, England · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
West Ham vs QPR Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for West Ham and 0.90 for QPR, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives West Ham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
West Ham win
65.0% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
West Ham home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
QPR away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–07.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 47.9% vs market 43.4%, edge +4.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.4% | 47.9% | 2.09 | +4.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.75 | 34.6% | 35.0% | 2.86 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.60 | 19.8% | 19.9% | 5.03 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 65.0% | 65.0% | 1.54 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 84.9% | 84.9% | 1.18 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 15.2% | 15.1% | 6.62 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.6% | 80.1% | 1.25 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.6% | 52.1% | 1.92 | -4.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
West Ham
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 3-2 (W)
QPR
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-11T14:30:00.000Z · West Ham 2-1 QPR (FA Cup)
- 2015-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · West Ham 0-0 QPR (Premier League)
- 2014-10-05T15:15:00.000Z · West Ham 2-0 QPR (Premier League)
- 2013-01-19T15:00:00.000Z · West Ham 1-1 QPR (Premier League)
- 2012-10-01T19:00:00.000Z · West Ham 2-1 QPR (Premier League)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is West Ham win, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.