Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Referee Vasilica Iancu, Portugal · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.76 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.24 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Santa Clara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santa Clara win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
0.76 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Casa Pia home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Santa Clara away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.8%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–010.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 62.2% vs market 55.7%, edge +6.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 62.2% | 1.61 | +6.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.85 | 50.9% | 52.4% | 1.91 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.4% | 29.6% | 3.38 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 4.00 | 22.8% | 22.8% | 4.39 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.91 | 47.8% | 47.6% | 2.10 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.7% | 70.4% | 1.42 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.20 | 78.4% | 77.2% | 1.30 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 37.8% | 2.65 | -6.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Casa Pia
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-24T19:15:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 0-2 (L)
Santa Clara
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T17:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-0 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-12-06T15:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-1 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-02-01T15:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-2 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-08-24T14:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-2 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-01-29T15:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 2-1 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-08-07T14:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-0 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2019-12-22T15:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 2-1 Santa Clara (Taça da Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santa Clara win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.