Estádio José Alvalade · Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal · Analysis updated 20:44 UTC
Sporting CP vs Arouca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Sporting CP and 0.75 for Arouca, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Sporting CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting CP win
82.1% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting CP home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arouca away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.6%
- 3–010.6%
- 4–07.9%
- 2–17.9%
- 3–17.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 2.00 (model 49.9% vs market 46.4%, edge +3.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 2.00 | 46.4% | 49.9% | 2.00 | +3.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.03 | 93.0% | 93.6% | 1.07 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 5.50 | 17.4% | 17.8% | 5.62 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 15.00 | 6.2% | 6.3% | 15.87 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.14 | 82.1% | 82.1% | 1.22 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 8.00 | 11.7% | 11.5% | 8.70 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.07 | 89.6% | 88.4% | 1.13 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.73 | 53.6% | 50.1% | 2.00 | -3.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sporting CP
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional · 2-0 (W)
Arouca
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-2 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-01-24T18:00:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-1 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-17T19:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 6-0 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-02-15T20:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-2 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-09-13T19:15:00.000Z · Sporting CP 3-0 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-03-10T18:00:00.000Z · Sporting CP 3-0 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-10-08T19:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-1 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-04-16T19:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 1-1 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-01-24T19:45:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-1 Arouca (Taça da Liga)
- 2022-10-29T19:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 0-1 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting CP win, at 82.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.